Now

Updated January 4th, 2026 from my home in Brooklyn, New York.

Personal

In a few days, Ruolin and I are heading to China and Vietnam to visit family and take vacation until late January. Meanwhile, we’ve gotten into scuba diving. We got certified in Cozumel in 2024 and we’ve been diving in Galápagos and Bonaire. We spend most of our time in NYC but hope to spend some time at our Austin place this winter.

Forecasting

I’m a forcaster for Samotsvety, a Good Judgement Superforecaster and a professional for the RAND Forecasting Initiative.

One of my missions is to drive the wider adoption of forecasts as a tool for making sense of the world. Since forecasters are judged on their track records, and not by how many views or likes they receive, they have the right incentives for accuracy.

Recently, I’ve benn forcused on growing the forecasting community in NYC and building a forecasting bot on Metaculus.

Writing

I write at Abstraction about forecasting and prediction markets, AI progress and safety, cybersecurity, and urbanism. I ran a writing workshop at the 2025 rationalist megameetup and I’m considering doing more.

Building

I recently finished a working prototype of Akkompli, a GTD-style task tracking app. Meanwhile, Cipherblock (signature-based blockchain) is stable and ready for applications built on top of it. Finally, as I mentioned previously, I’ll release my forecasting bot when it’s ready.

Professional

I’m a Security Architect at JP Morgan and an adjunct professor teaching graduate-level Application Security at NYU. I’m working with a colleague on grant applications for a cybersecurity research lab.